Artificial Intelligence Accurately Predicted Trump’s 100-Day Approval Rating
A company called Unanimous AI accepted a challenge from the media to use its Swarm AI to predict the president’s approval rating at 100 days in office. It worked; at least, it matched the results from polls presented by the Washington Post and ABC News.
The company describes its software as “A combination of real-time human input and A.I. algorithms…Swarm A.I. system combines the knowledge, wisdom, opinions, and intuitions of live human participants as a unified emergent intelligence that can generate optimized predictions, decisions, insights, and judgments.” Unanimous AI collects opinions by asking users a series of questions about everything from election results to award winners.
The approach is unique in the sense that the respondents provide more open feedback instead of a stale, multiple-choice answer. They do so by indicating how accurate each answer choice is on a sliding scale. In this system, confidence is key to predicting the result. Those with the most confidence in their responses often skew the scale in that direction.
While the Swarm system has made some impressive predictions of Kentucky Derby winners, Grammys, and the Super Bowl, the software is only as good as the humans behind it.
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